Fits a BATS model applied to
y, as described in De Livera, Hyndman &
Snyder (2011). Parallel processing is used by default to speed up the
bats( y, use.box.cox = NULL, use.trend = NULL, use.damped.trend = NULL, seasonal.periods = NULL, use.arma.errors = TRUE, use.parallel = length(y) > 1000, num.cores = 2, bc.lower = 0, bc.upper = 1, biasadj = FALSE, model = NULL, ... )
The time series to be forecast. Can be
ts. Only univariate time series are supported.
TRUE/FALSE indicates whether to use the Box-Cox
transformation or not. If
NULL then both are tried and the best fit
is selected by AIC.
TRUE/FALSE indicates whether to include a trend or
NULL then both are tried and the best fit is selected by AIC.
TRUE/FALSE indicates whether to include a
damping parameter in the trend or not. If
NULL then both are tried
and the best fit is selected by AIC.
y is a numeric then seasonal periods can
be specified with this parameter.
TRUE/FALSE indicates whether to include ARMA
errors or not. If
TRUE the best fit is selected by AIC. If
FALSE then the selection algorithm does not consider ARMA errors.
TRUE/FALSE indicates whether or not to use
The number of parallel processes to be used if using
parallel processing. If
NULL then the number of logical cores is
detected and all available cores are used.
The lower limit (inclusive) for the Box-Cox transformation.
The upper limit (inclusive) for the Box-Cox transformation.
Use adjusted back-transformed mean for Box-Cox transformations. If TRUE, point forecasts and fitted values are mean forecast. Otherwise, these points can be considered the median of the forecast densities.
Output from a previous call to
bats. If model is passed,
this same model is fitted to
y without re-estimating any parameters.
Additional arguments to be passed to
choose an ARMA(p, q) model for the errors. (Note that xreg will be ignored,
as will any arguments concerning seasonality and differencing, but arguments
controlling the values of p and q will be used.)
An object of class "
bats". The generic accessor functions
residuals extract useful features of the
value returned by
bats and associated functions. The fitted model is
designated BATS(omega, p,q, phi, m1,...mJ) where omega is the Box-Cox
parameter and phi is the damping parameter; the error is modelled as an
ARMA(p,q) process and m1,...,mJ list the seasonal periods used in the model.
De Livera, A.M., Hyndman, R.J., & Snyder, R. D. (2011), Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 106(496), 1513-1527.